I might as well state
my bias at the outset of this post on using and living with the automobile at
the tail end of the automobile age. I will also describe at some length which vehicles
I own or have owned and why I chose them. As ages go, the Automobile Age has
had a relatively short lifespan. Not much longer than the lifespan of other
living life forms. In the United States the car was born in the early decades
of the 20th century. Its rapid adoption corresponded with an
explosion of economic growth and industrial expansion across the land. This
expansion was fostered by the availability of cheap energy which generated
positive feedback loops promoting expanding infrastructures in transportation
and housing and Agricultural production. Production of goods and services
soared and progress seemed without limits. One of the early decades was even named
the “Roaring Twenties.” This growth followed an exponential curve briefly
interrupted by a world war but resuming after the war. The United States with
an undamaged industrial base and producing most of the world’s energy had a head
start resuming economic growth after the war made possible by producing most of
the world’s coal and oil energy, the fundamental drivers or industrial growth
and expansion. Cheap and abundant oil virtually guaranteed a switch from muscle
energy from human and animal sources running simple tools to fossil energy
propelling ever larger and complex machines. The great suburban expansion began
in the 1950’s helped along by ever longer and smoother roads traveled by ever
longer and more powerful cars and truckswhich quickly evolved from simply a
tool to get from point to point to a necessity for work and procurement of
consumer goods and food. The automobile industry became a prime driver of the
economy. Charles Wilson the CEO of
General Motors at the time was quoted as saying that whatever was good for the
country was good for General motors and vice versa.” The automobile went from
being a tool to a status symbol. Performance and safety improvements were added
as well as outrageous stylistic elements like aerodynamic fins and propellers
mirroring aircraft design. Indeed in the 1950’s predictions were made that the
cars of the future would also fly! This particular car pictured was even to be atomic powered!
The absurdity of such predictions was rarely mentioned at
the time and automotive engineers concentrated on stylistic and luxury changes
to their creations at the expense of mechanical and efficiency improvements.
This came to a crashing halt with the oil shocks of the 1970’s when fuel prices
soared along with fuel shortages. Social critics at the time started ridiculing
American cars as “dinosaurs, boats and Detroit Junk.” My father was one of the first
purchasers in our neighborhood of the sturdy German made Volkswagen Beetle
which delivered economy and crisp handling. In fact he never looked back and
when the Japanese manufacturers began adding quality mechanical improvements
and technological innovations like four wheel drive in a small economy car, he
was again in the vanguard purchasing the advanced and practical Subaru Station
wagon in the 1970’s. The American automotive industry was being eclipsed by
foreign producers who emphasized reliability, durability and long life over
style and fashion. At a time when the engine life of the typical American
engine was 100,000 miles, European and Japanese engines typically lasted more
than twice as long. Some like the Mercedes 240 and 300D diesel sedans were lasting
more than a half a million miles or longer before overhaul. Eventually some American
car companies fought back with quality and durability and efficiency
improvements and began to deliver products rivaling their foreign rivals.
The automobile industry
in the latter decades of the 20th century became a globalized entity
as country after country developed their own automobiles generating vast
increases in production and models. In 2018 it was estimated that there were
1.32 Billion
cars, trucks and busses. Virtually all of these vehicles run on petroleum as do
all ships and aircraft and most trains. The United States as a single country
consumes just under a quarter of all the oil in the world. In 2017, the United
States consumed a total of 7.28 billion barrels of petroleum products; an
average of about 19.96 million barrels per day. World crude oil + condensate
was a bit over 80 million barrels a day in 2017.( Both sources from the EIA).Travel
by private automobile is an enormous
waste of oil energy and exceedingly inefficient. The gasoline engine is only
about 20-25% efficient and consider that most of the energy is used to
transport a 4000 pound mass of steel and overcome friction and air resistance.
It may be carrying a human payload of
only 150 lbs dropping the effective efficiency down to about 1% while
generating heat and CO2 warming the planet.Moreover, Conventional oil
production has peaked and beginning to decline confirming the existence of Peak
Oil. For many many decades new discoveries of oil have not met annual
consumption. Notice I have not said the world is running out of oil. Indeed the
world will never run out of oil but it is certainly running out of Cheap oil. And cheap oil is what has
driven our globalized industrial civilization and it is my contention that
expensive oil cannot. This is an undeniable fact and it is this reality which
will doom the personal automobile transportation model. This fact has not sunk
in as a looming reality to most Americans but it will. Most Americans would
probably admit that traveling by car as well as by plane is no longer as
enjoyable as it once was and traffic jams are a reality in virtually every sizable
American city . The roads are full most of the time:
On a trip 2 years ago it took me almost 2 hours to get
around Seattle returning to Wyoming from a trip to a location just north of
Seattle. It was that trip that convinced me that the end of the Automobile Age
was nigh, at least in the coastal West.
Recent production
numbers from a variety of countries would seem to confirm my conclusion. Many
companies have eliminated jobs, the most recent in the US when GM announced a
cut of 15%. Chinese Auto sales fell 17.7% in January and sales have declined 8
months in a row. For all of 2018 it was a fall of 4.1%, the first fall since
the early 1990’s. England and Germany have seen cuts in production which
appears unrelated to the Brexit issues. A worldwide recession may be in the
offing explaining some of these declines but it just may be that we have too
many cars and we don’t need any more. It is a certainty that we will continue
to use cars but I am calling the end of the Automobile Age. If my judgment call
is correct, how should we manage this predicament as individuals? For the rest
of this post I will try to offer my opinions and advice on how we can use these
rather amazing tools that are nearing the end of their life span. Again these are
my personal opinions based upon my experience with vehicles with which I am
familiar.
My advice will be
economic as well as practical and frugal. My first piece of advice is NEVER BUY
A NEW CAR AGAIN. It has rarely been a good financial decision to buy a new car.
People would never buy a new house knowing that as soon as they get the keys to
their front door, the house would immediately lose more that 10% of its value,
but that is what happens buying a new car. And every year thereafter you will
lose another 10% or more. And then there are non deductible interest costs on
the loan and expensive maintenance along with the possibility of catastrophic
failure of the car itself wiping out your “investment.” When cars started replacing the horse and
buggy, who went out and bought buggy whips? That industry was doomed just like
the automobile industry will be doomed along with the airplane industry and all
vehicles running on petroleum. So my advice is continue to use cars as tools.
Try to choose the best and most reliable tool you can find. Take care of it
like you would any good tool and make it last as long as you can. “ Use it up,
wear it out. Make it do or do without”, as my depression era mother used to
say. Lets now get down to specifics. How can a diligent and thoughtful person
manage this process especially if they are not a mechanic?
The best way to start is to find out and listen to someone
who is a mechanic, preferably someone who has some gray hair. Repair of most
new cars often involves consulting the OBD(on board diagnostic) codes and
replacing the part which the car’s computer
says is defective. Many new and younger mechanics trained on new cars are just replacing
one black box with another. It is one of my contentions that you need to move
to older vehicles having fewer or no black boxes and use that as your starting
point. You should also choose and consult a mechanic of that era. Most older
mechanics working on newer vehicles have one leg in the older generation of
cars as well as the newer generation. That is why your mechanic will have to
have gray hair and bad teeth in order to be helpful.
My next big
suggestion is to find the most durable and reliable tool available. This is
actually easier than it sounds and many older mechanics can be a big help here.
Remember the picture of the Maytag Mechanic? Sitting alone with nothing to do
just hoping for a call. You want to find that Maytag quality car. They are out
there and they are the cars you want to target. They almost always have had
large production runs and this is very important. If millions of one model were
made then economies of scale are working in your favor. Parts will be cheaper
and more available in not just auto parts stores but in junkyards. Finding
which cars have had large production runs is easy. In the united states in
sedans that has been the Toyota Camry and Corolla, and the Honda Civic and
Accord. If you need 4wd where you live(and most don’t!), that would be the
Subaru , particularly models with the 2.2L engine. The larger 2.5L motor was
notorious for blowing head gaskets. If you want American cars then GM made
millions of Buicks, Oldsmobiles and Pontiacs with excellent durability records
in the 80’s and 90’s most with the 3.1 or 3.8 liter engine, If it’s trucks, Gm
and Ford and Dodge all made models with excellent durability. They also had
models with poor records which should be avoided like the plague. I will cover
specific desirable models later on.
My next suggestion
is to look at which older models are still on the road around you and who is driving them. This will depend upon
where you live and what the economy is like. In the Bay area you may see late
model BMWs, Mercedes, Lexus and Teslas.
In Oklahoma you will see older Toyotas and Buicks and lots old 80’s and 90’s GM
trucks. I had an older mechanic friend who advised me to “Buy what the Mexicans
are driving.”
His reasoning was that Mexicans were not usually wealthy and
needed reliable cheap transportation that was serviceable. Many Mexicans have
experience repairing older cars and they tend to stay away from models with
poor reliability and high repair costs.Publications like Consumer reports can
be of some help determining average repair costs but this is only somewhat
helpful and they only deal with newer models.
My next suggestion
is after you have honed in on a particular car company based on observation and
consultation and research, you need to now move on to the next level. Move from
Say Toyota Camry 101 to Camry 201. You need to know that ALL cars no matter
what make, model, or year, have problems. No car is perfect although some are
pretty close. Let me give an example of a car I am particular familiar with:
The Toyota Corolla. Some of the early years had mechanical and rust problems
but by the late 80’s they became extremely reliable. The 90’s models were particular noteworthy But at the
end of the decade Toyota engineers made changes which were done to improve
economy, power and durability but they introduced an unintentional design flaw.
It was a simple and stupid mistake. In order for an engine to last it needs oil
to lubricate moving surfaces and return to the oil pan and the oil pump. One of
the ways the oil gets back to the pump was in drain holes in the side of the
pistons and for unknown reasons they reduced the diameter and number of these
holes and as a consequence if the engine oil wasn’t changed very frequently
these holes would plug up and then the engine would burn the oil in the
cylinder instead of returning to the oil pan. These engines were notorious for
oil burning as were Camrys and other Toyota models of that era. Toyota even
issued a recall for this flaw which helped some owners but came too late for
most others.The fix is easy. Remove the pistons, drill in bigger holes and put
it back together. I had two of these engines and once fixed the engines are
permanently repaired and will deliver amazing economy and long life. I did this
repair myself on my 2001 Corolla some
time back over a weekend and now have
300,000 miles on it. Before the fix it was burning 1 qt of oil every 150 miles
and now burns nothing despite the high miles. It also gets 42-50 mpg with a manual
transmission, with economy rivaling a Toyota Prius hybrid with none of the
complexity.This naturally leads me into a segue on complexity.
Make simplicity
and serviceability a priority. Eschew complexity. For this a mechanic or
internet search of the various forums and Youtube videos can be very helpful.
Some cars are easy to work on and some are a nightmare. In general larger older
cars are easier than smaller newer cars. This is a function of nothing more
than “knuckle room.” Once smaller cars
became the rule the engineers were forced to cram the same amount of components
into smaller and smaller spaces leaving very little room to swing a wrench,
making serviceability problematic. Spaces under the hood also became tighter
when cars became smaller and went from rear wheel drive to front wheel drive
combining the engine with 2 driveshafts,
expensive constant velocity joints and rubber
boots with short lives and a transaxle into spaces that used to be vast and
open. If you don’t need the traction superiority of a FWD then an older rear
wheel drive offers lower costs and easy access. Access to all the suspension
and most engine components is considerably easier. Remember: choose simplicity
over complexity. In general the older the car, the less complex. If you go back
as far as the 1950’s some of the cars like some early Volvos shared components
with Volvo tractors of the era! Gasoline
cars until about the 1980’s used carburetors for fuel delivery. Fuel injection
systems under the control of electronic sensors and computers have been the
rule for the past 30 years. Diesel engines have always had injection pumps for
fuel delivery, incidentally. Injection pumps offered advantages in fuel economy
and drivability but disadvantages in reparability besides black box replacement
when the sensors or other black boxes failed. Unlike a cranky carburetor, sensors
,injection pumps or computers are not a
reparable items. They are also far more expensive than a simple four moving parts carb. The other obvious
disadvantage of the newer computerized electronics in newer cars is that many
require trained expertise and complex diagnostic equipment to fix problems
where cars of the 40’s and 50’s could be put back on the road by someone with a
vocabulary of 900 words, a butt crack and a small toolbox. Newer cars tend to go
longer between repairs than most older cars but repairs on new models can break
the bank. My bias on recommendations is to favor systems with mechanical
anatomy and physiology rather than electronic as many mechanical components are
field repairable and tend to be cheap and durable. This is not the case for electronics
which are sensitive to moisture, vibration and can be damaged from other defective
electronics upstream and downstream. EMP(electromagnetic pulse) waves originating
from solar storms could wipe out most electronics in unhardened telecommunications and electrical
power systems and to, you guessed it:
automobile electronics. In general the newer the car the more electronics
system controls. Even simple systems like controlling heat and ventilation
which used to be controlled by a lever and a cable are under unnecessarily
complex electronic algorithms.
Another factor to
consider when buying a used car is the maintenance history. The ideal car is
one with sound design, quality manufacture and a previous owner who followed meticulous
maintenance preferably with service records in the glove box. Another issue is
the issue of low miles or high miles. Low miles in a context of stop and go
city driving or harsh climatic conditions will likely cause more mechanical
wear than long haul high mileage conditions. Cars with exceedingly low miles
may have been left immobile for long periods which can cause as much or more
damage than high miles, the so called “time termite.” You should also keep in
mind the appearance and function of all the components you can see when evaluating
a used car. You want to buy from someone who fixed anything promptly that went
wrong and that includes simple things like handles and hinges and knobs, If
they let simple things go unrepaired, that shows a lack of care and attention
to more serious problems.
I would like to
return now to how to choose cars based upon model year. I mentioned that all
cars have good points and bad points and it is essential to try to find out
what they are for a particular model in which you might be interested. For example let
me return to one of my current cars, my 2001 Toyota Corolla with the 1zz-FE
engine. I mentioned its greatest flaw, the oil burning. I do know that this flaw
continued right up to when they issued the recall for that particular engine.
As it happens another engine of theirs, the 2AZFE engine also had oil burning
issues and that engine was used in many models well into the second decade of
the 21st century. It behooves
the buyer to exercise due diligence and do his research. In defense of Toyota
engineering I have to say that most other components are exceedingly durable,
well designed and long lived, even the electronics. Every single component on
my car works flawlessly from hinges to switches to electronic components like
cruise control and heating/AC. The gaskets are tight as is the suspension. The
seats are comfortable. The manual transmission shifts perfectly. I did replace
the clutch which took me only a half day and cost less than $150.This 1ZZFE
engine has a timing chain instead of a timing belts and rarely needs replacing.
All the major components that wear are easily accessible such as starter, alternator,
belts, brakes, and filters. I would advise only buying the manual transmission model.
The Automatic of this era performed poorly and delivered abysmal economy. These
cars are often available for a song if they have serious oil burning and if all
other components are functioning, they are well worth repairing and rebuilding
the engine as I indicated. Putting in a low mile used engine is not recommended
unless it has had the fix. I would also strongly recommend all Corollas prior
to 1998 with the earlier engine design as well as all Camrys up to about 2002
with the 4 cylinder engine. We had a 1997 with an Automatic transmission that
was the equal in quality of our 2001 Corolla and it had an excellent engine and
transmission which delivered exceptional performance and superb economy as high
as 36-38 mpg on trips. Had it not been totaled in an accident, we would still
be driving it.. I beg forbearance from the reader for a long discourse on
particular car models but only did so to illustrate the care in choosing the
best model and achieving familiarity with it is a wise course of action. It is
best just like in choosing a mate to find the best model , know its foibles and
take care of it and not replace it unless absolutely necessary. It is also
possible to learn to do your own basic repairs if you keep it for a long period
of time. Replacing your car every few years is economically foolish and
damaging to the planet’s diminishing resources and climate
I have another strong recommendation for a durable, easily
repairable vehicle of the 1980’s with a well deserved cult following: the mid
1980’s Mercedes diesel sedans. My oldest model is a 1982 240D with a manual 4
spd transmission with roll up windows and all manual controls. It was and
probably still is the best taxicab ever built and was a feature of world taxi
fleets for a good reason: repairability, durability, and simplicity. This car
has 200K miles, burns no oil, delivers economy between 30 and 36 mpg for a relatively large and heavy sedan. Every
single component is accessible. The engine bay is cavernous. The electronics
are nonexistent besides lights and a radio. It will run perfectly even if you
lose an alternator or a battery. It is possible to push start it if you lose
the starter or battery! Heater and defroster controls are controlled by a
visible cable arrangement. If it has a disadvantage it is slow. The 4 cylinder
engine delivers only about 65 hp . The joke about the 240 D is that it is so
slow that you get bugs on the back window! If you can avoid mountain passes, interstate
entrance ramps and passing other cars, it is a fine car, I am not aware of any
design flaws and the production run on these Mercedes sedans was enormous
worldwide and as a consequence parts availability is excellent except almost nothing
on these cars wears out. Door handles are heavy chrome steel for example and
the seats are original and comfortable. I have another Mercedes diesel, a 1985
5 cylinder turbo diesel with almost 300K miles which has twice the power of the 240D in the same
chassis but at the expense of more complexity such as power windows, cruise and climate control and an automatic transmission, all options
made for the American car market and all problems I have had to deal with. It
is heavier than the 240 D but delivers almost as good economy:28-32 mpg. And also
burns no oil and still starts on the first try and runs quietly. Entrance ramps
and mountain passes are no problem. I have had both these cars since early in
this century and would not part with them. Their engines are solid steel blocks
and heads unlike more modern gasoline and diesel engines and as a consequence
have identical thermal expansion and do not suffer from head gasket issues as
do most other cars of modern vintage. They use timing chains instead of
belts which only rarely need
replacement. Many of the Mercedes diesels built after 1985 had a variety of
flaws including blown head gaskets. They are best avoided. The 1985 was
exceeding expensive for its day and cost about $50,000 new. They can be
purchased today in running condition for from under $1000 to about $5000 . If I
was forced to choose between the two I would keep the 240 D because of its
utter bullet proof simplicity.
My trucks are 2nd generation Dodge diesels which
were manufactured between 1994 and 1998. They are famous for the Cummins 12
valve engine which treated properly will last almost indefinitely. Electronics
are minimal unlike post 1998 models which had problematic electronic injection pumps. The transmissions were
mediocre and weak but can be made durable when rebuilt to handle the abundant
power of the 5.9 Liter inline 6 engine. Despite its considerable weight these
diesels deliver excellent economy of up to 22 mpg. They also have a cult
following and typically have high resale value.
I am not a fan of older small pickups. Cramming 4 wheel drive components
into already tight spaces makes service
and repairs often difficult and expensive. Avoid 4wd vehicles unless it is
essential because of higher maintenance cost and reduced economy. The 70’s
through the 90’s US made pickups offer decent value and are simple enough for
any backyard mechanic to maintain. The 4.9 liter straight 6 Ford
engine made from the 70’s until 1995 merits honorable mention because it is a
straight 6 design rather than a V design and is long lived and exceedingly easy
to service delivering excellent economy especially with the manual
transmission.
It is sometimes
possible to purchase these old sedans and trucks that have been restored and
most will have had worn out components replaced. It is wise to have a mechanic familiar with the model you have chosen
do a pre-sale examination on a lift and do a thorough test drive at all speeds.
It is mandatory to do a cold start for the engine and to feel the engine to
ensure it is cold. Then check the oil and coolant and other fluid levels such
as brake fluid, Transmission and PS
fluid and air filter. The engine should start easily and run smoothly without
any unusual noises and have a smoke free
exhaust. Inquire how much oil the engine burns or leaks. Excessive oil burning
or leaking needs to be evaluated by your mechanic. Some fixes are relatively
inexpensive but most are not. There should be no “blow by” in the breather
which usually indicates low compression and worn rings. A compression check and
oil analysis can be exceedingly useful. This should not cost more than about
$50. If the car passes the mechanic’s checks then it is essential to change all
the fluids and filters in the entire car including engine oil, transmission and
differentials, brake fluid and PS fluid as well as a coolant flush. Consult the
owner’s manual on how often this should be done. The original owner’s manual
should be present which usually has some service records and is indicative of
better maintenance. If the car has not
had recommended maintenance with these services, that is a potential red flag.
All mechanical components ride on a flim of oil and keeping the oil clean is
the best way to extend the life and head off wear. I cannot over emphasize this
point. Use only the best oil and filters. Synthetic lubricants should be used
unless the mechanic recommends against their use and some older cars should
only use petroleum based lubricants. A good mechanic can spot problems and
provide an estimate of repairs needed to bring the car to acceptable function
and will determine what price you can offer. Some of the 4 cylinder cars I have
recommended may still be worth buying even with serious issues if the price is
right. In those cases it may be just over what a junkyard would offer. In
general it is wise to steer clear of any significant rust and avoid cars which
were used in areas with salt on the roads or from areas with catastrophic
floods. A VIN check would be useful on all vehicles to examine its history. It is best to buy from a private party and
the fewer the previous owners, the better. If the owner is evasive with your
inquiry, walk away. Always ask why they are selling the car and their answer
should ring true. If they seem in any way dishonest, walk away. I believe most
people are honest and in general I think women are more trustworthy than men
even if their mechanical abilities are less. There are many advantages owning these
older vehicles besides simplicity. Older models may be exempt from emission
testing. Insurance will be minimal and repairs will in most cases be far
less and can be provided by you or an
independent shop. Dealer services tend to be far above what an independent
mechanic might charge. If the car is totaled by an accident or catastrophic
engine or transmission failure, your
losses will be far more bearable. Finally I would concentrate on car models
which deliver excellent economy. Smaller 4 cylinder engines are preferable to
larger 6 and 8 cylinder versions and are easier to do maintenance and service.
In conclusion I would recommend doing meticulous research before deciding which
model to purchase. Avoid the uncommon low production run vehicles and manufacturers
out of business or soon to be. The internet car forums and YouTube videos are a
great help avoiding notorious lemons and pinpointing desirable models. Face it.
Travel by private automobile will likely be increasingly inconvenient and
expensive going forward as finite oil stocks deplete as the the Autombile Age draws to a close.
