Friday, March 27, 2009
Psst! Timmy.I think we have a problem
This monster on the left is supposed to be a hydra headed monster, a metaphor for the dangerous silliness going on in DC. You thought the banks were insolvent because the real estate market tanked because immigrant strawberry pickers were falling behind on their San Joaquin Valley mcmansions after their ARMs reset. Well actually it's a little more complicated than that. George Soros the other day dropped a bomb predicting a big drop in commercial real estate in the US but actually ComRE has been imploding elsewhere. One of the German Government's early bailouts was a real estate firm. So I decided to try to find out the percentages of loan composition on these banks balance sheets and this is what I found:
Residential mortgages account for only about one quarter off their loan portfolio(26%).
Commercial,Industrial, non farm nonresidential and construction loans amount to 40%. Public anger is growing to more bank bailouts and a drop in the value of banks commercial loan portfolios could trigger the next grand mal seizure in the banks not to mention in any derivatives or SIVs tied to commercial real estate. Hello AIG! Don't Ask! Meanwhile over in Europe ahead of the G20 meeting in London, the President of the EU, Mirek Topolanek yesterday said the Obama economic policies are putting it on "The Road to Hell." My sentiment exactly.