Friday, December 21, 2018

Saving the planet: hard facts and simple solutions(contains a pre xmas rant)





Now that the UN Climate Conference COP 24 in Poland has wrapped up we all know what we need to do. The only way to reduce emissions of CO2 and save the planet is to stop using fossil energy and switch to renewable energy. Exactly what would we have to do? I mean, what specific steps? I read the other day that 100 globalized companies are responsible for 70% of industrial emissions The article did not mention who they are but I would assume they are the power companies, mining companies, shipping and transportation companies and manufacturing companies needing vast amounts of carbon based fuel like for concrete and sheet rock. It would seem that they should reduce their emissions since the impact would be far greater than asking us serfs to reduce our carbon footprint by riding our bikes to our cubicles. Surely they could stop making so much electricity, mining and refining and moving stuff around.  To see where we can cut CO2 emissions we need to know the sector energy consumption (EIA 2015):Warning:contains some irony and sarcasm which may not be suitable for all viewers):
Industrial 33%,Transportation 29%,Residential 20%, commercial 18%.
Over 50% of industrial energy  is for chemicals(22%),petroleum refining(16%), metals, ferrous and non ferrous(14%). Concrete and building materials particularly gypsum are each about 10%. In order to cut the industrial sector we will have to de-industrialize the country:mining and refining less, reducing chemical production.  Easy enough.
Transportation  energy: gasoline uses 61%, diesel 21%(seems low!), and av fuel 12%.  This seems obvious: we will drive less, fly less and ship less. The way to reduce energy here is stop commuting to work        and school and shopping centers in gas guzzling suvs and pickup trucks and take public transportation.No more flying vacations to Cabo. Un fortunately our suburban lifestyle of sprawling housing, shopping and work sites mandates the private automobile. Outside of a few large cities on the East Coast, mass transportation doesn’t exist. J. Kunstler describes the American suburban experiment as the “greatest misallocation of resources in world history.” The easy solution here is to leave that vinyl and sheetrock shitbox in the burbs and move to a walkable city and find a new job where the kids can bike to school and play in the park. Get a mortgage from George Bailey at the Building and loan and fire up your American dream. What’s not to like? If you got a wife like Donna Reed you’re practically there. A guardian angel will come in handy, so find one.
Residential: Most of the energy use here is heating/AC  and lighting,  appliances and electronics. To cut energy use here we need smaller insulated houses with solar water heating and energy efficient appliances.  Move out of those slab sided McMansions and into  smaller houses.  Maybe move into a tiny house. I have personal experience with this suggestion. I built a super insulated 300 sq ft tiny house for $22,000  which consumes almost no energy even in a Wyoming climate. It has the additional advantage of becoming an escape module from toothless meth snorting zombies if the SHTF.  I could tow it to Manitoba behind the Cummins and live among peace loving unarmed taciturn Canadians. This energy sector offers the easiest opportunity to cut energy use which is almost entirely electricity based. Unplug from the grid and nail   up a few solar panels.Net Zero, brother. Of course there is the issue of taxes and water and sewer……..
Commercial: as expected most energy use here is electricity supplied  heat/AC and lighting.  Once the suburbs wither away so will the big box stores and nail salons and office parks. We will be able to get what we need from Amazon drones flown to Bailey Park landing inside of our white picket fences.
Permit me to now get a bit serious. If we really want to hit the 80% emission reduction of the Paris Accords by 2033  there is only one simple way:price Carbon use. If you want to reduce the use, you have to tax it. This the easiest quickest and best way and would require every person and business to share in the burden. It would mean a tax on fuel,coal and gas, implemented in stages. There would be no breaks for farmers, fishermen , truckers or the military. No subsidies, no exemptions. For this to work it would have to be applied equally world wide to keep the playing field level. A minimal goal would be to consume the same amount of energy per capita as Europe.Americans use twice what Europeans use. We could and should tax  transport fuel  in the US the way most of the world does. The taxes collected could go to programs to mitigate the consequence of de energizing the society. Canadians and Europeans pay $5-7/gallon for fuel and so should Americans. There is virtually no tax on Av Fuel. A $5/gallon tax wouldn’t faze your average Gulstream owner. This simple step would start undoing the damage caused to the planet and the country by virtually free fuel. Oil is a finite precious resource which should be priced like one. Would this one simple step reduce economic growth and GDP? Almost certainly. Increasing economic growth  increases energy use and  increases emissions of world warming gasses. The notion that we can make a wholesale switch to a renewable solar and wind energy economy is a fool’s errand which I have covered in the past and will in the future. It is not affordable, scalable, feasible or sensible.It is something for nothing. It sounds too good to be true and it is. The proponents of this move to a green sustainable economy promise we can continue our way of life by only changing our energy mix. It is patent nonsense. Cheap fossil energy is the reason we have had an industrial revolution and rampant consumerism.  Expensive and depleting  fossil energy will ultimate close that chapter. Fossil energy has taken the work out of men’s hands and off the backs of animals and given that work to machines. Fossil fuel industrial agriculture machines grow food virtually untouched by human hands and has allowed exponential increases in world population exceeding the carrying capacity of the planet.The Green Revolution brought about by modified grains, natural  gas fertilizers,  herbicides and pesticides  doubled wheat production from 1950 to 1960. It was no accident that world population also doubled in the last half of the 20th century. If you grow it they will eat………. and breed. There is no technological or political solution to halt fossil energy depletion. There are only intelligent responses which seem few and rarely voiced. For example we should set aside reserves of fossil fuels for our descendants. Save some for our children. What a unique idea!  We Americans love to blame other people for our problems:politicians, greedy isolated elites, corporate robber barons. We never think to look in the mirror. We have met the enemy and he is us. We have built an unsustainable oil dependent industrial civilization which is starting to collapse. Cheap oil never gets the blame for materialistic consumerism, loss of middle  and working class jobs and inequality resulting in massive migration from rural regions to the slums of Rio, Lagos and Mumbai. Isn’t cheap oil  partially responsible for the fentanyl, oxycodone and meth epidemic killing 40000 a year in flyover country? If machines, robots and automation, and offshoring rendered you dispensable, redundant and deplorable, what might you do? But from the media: a deafening silence except for mawkish sentimental segments of courageous waves of “refugees” pouring out of Central America and Africa who were created by cheap oil. We created them and now we own them? “ Huddled masses yearning to breathe free. We are a nation of immigrants”……… Intelligent, thoughtful reporting of what is happening to our industrial civilization is nonexistent. Most of us know in our gut that our society has jumped the rails but from the big players in the media only event and data reporting, trivial infotainment,human interest pabulum  and fatuous  drivel at times perilously close to propaganda. What’s a poor schmuck to do? An intelligent response is to just stop playing their game, listening to their sermons and voting in the lesser of two evils, buying their stuff, reading their propaganda, eating their garbage and watching their media. Reduce your needs, use your muscles to grow things, fix things, and reuse things. Think about trying to live like your grandmother and start thinking about feathering your nest and finding skills of self reliance and voluntary simplicity.  Get out of debt and get off your butt and make contingency plans. If you have useful skills, pass them on to your children and friends. The current model isn’t working and is beyond repair and redemption and it is time to think about what a new civilization will look like. Do I think that my suggestions to turn things around to save the planet have a snowball’s chance in hell of happening? No. Sorry. Gotta go. My sheep cows and pigs are bawling and need care.

No comments: