Sunday, October 12, 2008
The calm before the storm
I am a volunteer weather observer for the cocorahs network. We picked up 6.5" here last night and the highest total amount our local Wyoming stations seems to be 15" in Thermopolis and Absarokee. Billings MT had 22". Still snowing with a winter storm warning still in effect. I thought the image of a guillotine seemed appropriate to the punishment we would like to mete out to the rogues gallery of incompetents, neocons and financial physicists who have brought us to this point. I would like to include a link to a wonderfully bright and compassionate blogger who has composed a fairy tale of the past financial events which is probably an instant classic. He is Timothy Kailing and he has some experience wring children's stories:http://seekingalpha.com/author/timothy-d-kailing. Scroll to "A grimm bedtime story." Mike Fitzsimmons who is a fellow climber and writes with clarity that few can emulate has a recent summary of shrub and the fallacy of the conservative republican neocon mantra. He of course concludes that it is a betrayal of conservatism. It is something perilously close to Fascism. I urge all of you to read this recent blog.
I did this post partly in response to a request from my brother who wanted names, places and dates. He is not happy.
The blogosphere is aflame with opinion as the server farms add backup cooling to cope with the workload. Up in Canada Stoneleigh and her fellow blogger Illargi on Automaticearth have some sensible perspective on where we go from here. And if you still have time, Jeremy Grantham and Nouriel Roubini give more scholarly background which has been entirely accurate for some years on what would happen. As for me, I have been consumed by the drama going on in Iceland as you know. I have been listening to the receiva.com radio portal(37 stations), the public radio station in Reykjavik and streaming web TV when it is broadcasting. Google appropriately if you are interested. You will need to be fluent in Icelandic of course which I am not but the emotion in their voices can be stirring. They have some great radio stations which stoop to english on occasion. The streaming TV from Europe Scandinavia and Ireland especially is great. I did hear that there will be a huge jump in homes with negative equity there. No surprise. When the krona starts trading again it will be interesting how it trades with the Euro. With all the turmoil in European Banking markets I sold my euro positions and I think the jury is out on whether European Unity can survive this Tsunami. I'm only somewhat confident in the Swiss Franc, the Yen and temporarily at least the dollar. We still don't know any specifics from the G-6 + Italy meeting here this weekend and the keystone cops will move their jalopy over to the continent next week. I am guardedly pessimistic so far. So far the so called solutions have involved attempted bailouts and partial nationalization of the banks and financial institutions and the rest of the plutocracy that got us here in the first place. They are clinging to their wealth and power with the strength in their fingernails but I fear in the end it will be to no avail. Of course the bulk of the blame goes to the Republican Party and shrub and the gang who destroyed America and the pusilanimous, pathetic dems who signed off whining all the way. The attempt to restore the status quo by trying to return debt and credit is doomed in the long term although it may temporarily get our debt junkie economy back on its feet. Bush exhorted us to spend and consume after 911 just as Barney "google" Frank, Schumer and the rest of these criminals are frantically trying to get us back on our consumption treadmill. But it wont work. At some point our overseas trading partners will realize that the gig is up and stop buying TBill s and agency debt. If and when that happens, only then you will know that the Party is over and we will have to go back to square one and rebuild our banks and our economy. We will have to start saving as Americans to fund what we need to sustain a semblance of a future. We will become more local as James Taylor says in a recent Rolling Stone interview. We will consume less, much less. We will travel much less as Peak Oil issues become dominant in how we consume energy. The drop in worldwide and national oil consumption may buy us some time on the backside of Hubbert's Curve
perhaps providing some attenuation to the looming supply demand issues but there may be delay and cancellation of projects which will reduce and delay supply and negate that attenuation. There may be bankruptcy of producers and suppliers as their credit dries up. My real fear beyond the world walking away from funding our deficit is the return of the brownshirts and the sound of jackboots in the streets. If you heard Sarah Palins inciting of the mob the other day, you heard some in the audience yelling "traitor!" and "kill them!" "Kill him" referring to Barak Obama. Dupont and JP Morgan attempted to try to raise an army in the 30's and depose FDR which failed when an army general revealed the plot to FDR. The same could happen here if the rage in the unwashed uneducated hating masses builds. I fear for our immigrants, legal and illegal as they will be blamed and I pray that they will return to their countrries while they still can. YOYO and stay tuned.